"Four months in, still lots of questions about the coronavirus’ impact on the economy" by Gary Siegel, The Bond Buyer.
A full recovery may be a misleading term, said Kevin Philip, managing director at Bel Air Investment Advisors. “The economy can recover to pre-COVID GDP levels perhaps by 2022, but there will be permanent damage offset with large winners and new segments of growth.”
The increase in cases “will test our political will to keep the economy trending toward opening, it will stress our healthcare professionals and infrastructure, and most importantly, it will increase deaths and health ramifications for those infected,” he said.
Staying closed for at least a year while a vaccine is developed, “would dramatically change our open market system as we know it; we would, in essence, become a state-backed zombie economy. We are trying to find the balance of who we are, who we want to be, and what we need to be in the meantime — and there are very many valid opinions about different approaches.”
Read the full article here.